I. What the plan is, and what it is not

A Ten-Year Site Plan is a forecast, filed under state law (Florida Statutes section 186.801) usually by about April 1 each year. Inside, a utility lays out its projected peak demand (the single hour of highest electricity use, usually a hot August afternoon or a rare hard freeze), its fuel mix, and the specific generating units it plans to build or retire. Florida Power and Light, Duke Energy Florida, and Tampa Electric file the largest ones, and several municipal utilities and cooperatives file as well.

Here is the catch. The plan is a statement of intent, not a construction permit, and a line on a ten-year forecast can quietly disappear in next year's filing. A new plant still has to clear separate review before it is built. Treat the plan as a direction rather than a guarantee, and you will read it correctly.

II. Reading the numbers without being fooled

Headline figures are forecasts stretched a decade out, so they drift. FPL has said for years that it aims to install on the order of 30 million solar panels across the state by 2030, a round number worth treating as a goal rather than a meter reading. The honest move is to compare each year's plan against the one before it, and against what the ground actually shows.

Several things reward a close look. Watch whether planned solar megawatts keep showing up as built capacity in federal generation data, whether battery storage grows from a rounding error into real numbers, and how much new natural gas sits beside the solar. If the gas keeps expanding while the solar slips, the plan is telling you something the brochure will not.

III. Who files, and what each is promising

Florida Power and Light is the giant, serving much of the coast and the southeast, with large solar centers in places like Manatee and DeSoto counties and a fleet that still leans on natural gas. Duke Energy Florida covers a swath of the north and central peninsula around the old Crystal River site. Tampa Electric runs Big Bend on Tampa Bay and has built solar out in Polk County.

Municipal utilities and cooperatives matter more than their size suggests. JEA in Jacksonville, the Orlando Utilities Commission, Seminole Electric, and smaller players such as Florida Public Utilities each file or contribute, and their choices shape whole regions. Storm hardening runs alongside all of this in a separate docket, the Storm Protection Plan, where utilities lay out undergrounding and pole upgrades after a decade of hurricanes.

IV. Worth watching this month

1. The FPSC typically posts its staff review reports on the year's Ten-Year Site Plans in the second half of the year, so check the commission's site for the latest adequacy findings.

2. The next round of plans is due around April 1, 2027, which is the moment to compare fresh forecasts against this year's, though the filing itself is routine.

3. Duke and FPL storm protection plan dockets move on their own schedule at the FPSC, and these are the filings that actually touch your reliability and your bill.

4. Federal generation data for Florida updates through the year, so watch whether the solar share of the state's power keeps climbing toward the utilities' stated goals.

5. Atlantic hurricane season ends November 30, a routine date, but a quiet season or a brutal one shapes how hard the storm-hardening argument lands in the next filings.