Gulf wind is a maybe, not a plan | Renewable Energy Florida

I. What the federal assessments found

BOEM is the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, the federal agency that leases the seabed more than three miles offshore. In August 2023 BOEM held the first offshore wind lease sale in the Gulf of Mexico, for areas off Louisiana and Texas. At last public report only one tract drew a bid, and the eastern Gulf off Florida was not on the block at all.

Wind is the reason that matters most. NREL (the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the Energy Department's research lab) maps average offshore wind speeds in the eastern Gulf at roughly 7 to 8 meters per second, gentler than the roughly 9 to 10 meters per second off southern New England. A turbine's output rises with the cube of wind speed, so a small shortfall in wind becomes a large shortfall in power and in a developer's revenue.

II. The military was here first

Eglin Air Force Base, near Fort Walton Beach in the Panhandle, anchors one of the largest test ranges in the country, the Eglin Gulf Test and Training Range, which reaches far out over the eastern Gulf. The Air Force and Navy fly, test weapons, and train across much of that water. Fixed structures hundreds of feet tall, with spinning blades that light up on radar, are a hard fit inside an active range.

Before it offers any lease, BOEM screens the area with the Defense Department. In Gulf planning so far, the eastern half has effectively been treated as reserved for military use, which is a large part of why leasing interest has stayed west toward Louisiana and Texas. That is not a schedule that slips. It is a standing conflict over who uses the water, and it shows no sign of resolving soon.

III. The honest math on shallow water

Depth is the one point in Florida's favor. Much of the eastern Gulf shelf stays under roughly 100 feet of water well offshore, shallow enough for fixed-bottom turbines (towers driven straight into the seabed) rather than the costlier floating platforms the deep Pacific would need. Cheaper foundations, at least in theory.

Theory meets a soft, muddy seabed that complicates driving those foundations, and a hurricane season that pushes Category 3 and stronger storms across this coast in most years. Turbines built for the Gulf would need the toughest design class, which costs more, and an insurer still has to price the odds of a direct hit. Add the gentle wind to that, and the numbers for a developer come out thin, which is the plainest reason none have filed.

IV. Worth watching this month

1. BOEM's Gulf of Mexico renewable energy page, for any new call for information or nomination area, which so far has stayed off Louisiana and Texas and not Florida.

2. Whether the Defense Department signals any change in how much of the eastern Gulf it needs, which would be the single biggest thing to move this and currently shows no sign of changing.

3. NREL and NOAA data refreshes on Gulf wind speeds and storm frequency, routine updates but worth a glance if you want to check the numbers yourself.

4. Florida Public Service Commission dockets, where the state's near-term clean energy action is utility-scale solar and battery storage, not offshore wind.

5. Any proposal in Congress touching the eastern Gulf leasing moratorium, which covers oil and gas but shapes the politics of anything built offshore here.

Will I see wind turbines from a Florida Gulf beach soon?

Almost certainly not. There is no project queued, the federal leasing has stayed off Texas and Louisiana, and the eastern Gulf is largely reserved for military use.

Is the wind off Florida too weak for turbines?

It is gentler than off New England, on the order of 7 to 8 meters per second at last public report. That does not make it impossible, but it thins the economics considerably.

Doesn't shallow water make it easier?

Shallow water does favor cheaper fixed-bottom foundations. The soft seabed and hurricane risk push the cost back up, so depth alone does not carry a project.

Why is the military such a big factor here?

The eastern Gulf holds the Eglin Gulf Test and Training Range, used heavily for flight and weapons testing. Tall spinning structures conflict with that use, and BOEM clears any lease area with the Pentagon first.

What is Florida doing instead?

Florida's near-term clean energy growth is mostly utility-scale solar and battery storage, reviewed through the Florida Public Service Commission, rather than offshore wind.